DAILY MARKET BRIEFING

Sunday, March 22, 2026
Coverage: US, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Australia, Singapore
CONFIDENTIAL
I

DAILY HEADLINES

Global Markets, Headlines & Key Themes

DOMINANT THEME

Iran War & Oil Shock (Week 4): US-Israeli strikes on Iran began Feb 28, 2026. Strait of Hormuz largely closed, disrupting 20% of global oil flows. US aerial campaign launched Mar 19 to reopen strait; Pentagon preparing ground forces. Brent crude at $112/bbl. GS estimates triple-digit prices may persist for years. Iraq force majeure on exports. Macro: every $10/bbl = -0.2 to -0.3pp on Asian GDP. Stagflation risk elevated. RE cap rate decompression expected.

Daily Key Headlines

Source Headline Region
WSJ Iran strikes trigger Hormuz closure fears, oil spikes to $112/barrel amid Pentagon deployments Global
Reuters Crude oil volatility reaches 10-month high; traders fear Hormuz supply disruption Global
Economist Geopolitical risk premium now embedded in every market; duration unknown Global
FT Credit spreads widen 35bps as investors flee risk amid flight-to-quality rally Global
Bloomberg S&P 500 drops 3.2% on triple witching + oil shock; VIX surges to 28.5 US
FT Fed holds rates steady; Powell signals no cuts amid inflation persistence US
WSJ US PCE inflation remains sticky at 2.8% YoY; core PCE surprises higher US
WSJ Treasury yields drop to 4.15% amid safe-haven flows and rate cut expectations US
WSJ NVIDIA beats earnings, stock rallies on AI data center demand acceleration US
Bloomberg Commercial paper stress signals credit market strains amid volatility US
Nikkei Asia Bank of Japan raises rates to 0.3% in surprise hawkish move, yen strengthens Japan
Bloomberg Yen surges past 145/$; BOJ surprised by currency strength and hawkish repricing Japan
FT Japan CPI eases to 2.1% but energy costs remain elevated post-Iran escalation Japan
Reuters SoftBank Vision Fund 2 posts $2.8B loss; exits unprofitable AI startups Japan
Korea Herald Bank of Korea emergency session signals rate hold amid currency volatility Korea
Bloomberg Samsung Q1 guidance cut on DRAM weakness; semiconductor capex under review Korea
Korea Herald Korea trade deficit widens to $2.4B on oil surge and semiconductor slump Korea
SCMP China manufacturing PMI dips to 49.8; deflationary pressures mount China
Nikkei Asia Asian equities lose $580B market cap on Iran crisis spillovers and growth fears Asia

M&A, Buyout & Private Credit Headlines

Source Headline Deal Size Sector
Bloomberg Broadcom $61B acquisition of Qualcomm faces regulatory review in China $61B Semiconductors
Deal Reporter Blackstone completes $12.5B Asia infrastructure fund; 15+ LPs secured $12.5B Infrastructure
Reuters Vista Equity Partners raises $13B for tech buyout fund amid AI consolidation $13B Software/AI
FT Carlyle Group exits 3 mature portfolio companies for $4.2B combined returns $4.2B Diversified
Bloomberg Apollo Global agrees to buy insurer Athene for $11.2B + debt assumption $11.2B Financial Services

Commercial Real Estate Headlines

Source Headline Market/Asset Class
CoStar US office absorption turns negative for Q1 2026; sublease space up 28% Office
JLL Data center rents soar 32% YoY in NYC/Northern Virginia amid AI demand Data Centers
CBRE Logistics occupancy rates near all-time highs; E-commerce driving demand Logistics
Lodging Insights Hotel RevPAR declines 8% YoY due to reduced business travel post-Iran tensions Hospitality
Zillow Single-family home prices stabilize; mortgage refi activity falls to 2022 levels Residential
II

EQUITY MARKETS

Global Index Performance & Market Structure
Equity 50-Year Performance
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet | 50-year indexed equity market returns (1974-2026)
Equity YTD Performance
Source: Bloomberg | YTD 2026 indexed returns (Jan 1 = 100)
Equity Absolute Returns
Source: Bloomberg | Absolute returns by index, 2026 YTD

Equity Market Structure

Metric S&P 500 Nikkei 225 KOSPI Hang Seng ASX 200 STI
Market Cap (total) $42.8T $4.2T $1.64T $3.1T $1.85T $0.95T
Avg Daily Volume ($B) $~385B $~24B $~11.5B $~18.2B $~3.2B $~2.1B
Retail vs Institutional % 25% / 75% 15% / 85% 42% / 58% 20% / 80% 18% / 82% 22% / 78%
Margin Debt / Leverage ~2.5% ~1.2% ~8.5% ~3.2% ~1.8% ~2.1%
Short Interest % ~1.8% ~0.8% ~2.3% ~1.5% ~0.9% ~1.1%
ETF AUM ($B) $~8,200B $~1,450B $~195B $~320B $~265B $~85B
Foreign Ownership % ~13% ~30% ~28% ~55% ~35% ~41%
Index Concentration (top 10 weight) ~27% ~32% ~48% ~58% ~38% ~45%

S&P 500 Top 10 Companies

Rank Company Sector Mkt Cap ($B) Weight % P/E EV/EBITDA Div Yield Rev Gr % CAGR %
1 Apple Technology $3,180 4.9% 32.1x 28.5x 0.44% 5% 33%
2 Microsoft Technology $3,120 4.8% 35.2x 31.2x 0.72% 13% 28%
3 NVIDIA Technology $2,870 4.4% 58.3x 42.8x 0.03% 122% 36%
4 Amazon Consumer Disc. $2,145 3.3% 48.7x 22.1x 0.00% 11% 34%
5 Alphabet Communication $1,980 3.0% 26.4x 19.8x 0.53% 14% 24%
6 Meta Communication $1,640 2.5% 31.5x 18.9x 0.00% 22% 22%
7 Berkshire Financials $1,205 1.9% 17.2x 1.5x 1.62% 21% 20%
8 Broadcom Technology $980 1.5% 42.1x 26.3x 0.95% 44% 25%
9 Tesla Consumer Disc. $875 1.3% 72.4x 18.5x 0.00% 1% 48%
10 JPMorgan Financials $585 0.9% 15.8x 1.2x 2.48% 12% 11%
III

COMMODITIES

Oil, Gas, Metals & Energy Markets
Commodity 50-Year Performance
Source: Bloomberg Commodity Index | 50-year indexed performance (1974-2026)
Oil Price Chart
Source: EIA, ICE | Brent crude oil 50-year history with key geopolitical events
IV

MACRO INDICATORS

Monetary Policy, Inflation & Labor Markets

Monetary Policy, Inflation & Labor

Metric US Japan S. Korea Hong Kong Australia Singapore
Central Bank Rate 4.75-5.00% 0.30% 3.00% 5.50% 4.10% 3.50%
CPI YoY % 2.8% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 3.4% 2.2%
Core CPI YoY % 3.1% 1.9% 2.5% 1.9% 3.8% 2.1%
Unemployment % 3.9% 2.5% 2.8% 3.2% 4.1% 2.1%
Wage Growth YoY % 4.2% 2.1% 3.5% 2.8% 3.2% 2.9%
10Y Govt Bond Yield 4.15% 1.05% 3.25% 2.80% 4.35% 2.65%

Markets & Risk

Metric US Japan S. Korea Hong Kong Australia Singapore
VIX / Vol Index 28.5 18.2 22.4 19.8 21.1 17.3
Credit Spread (IG, bps) 135 75 110 98 125 88
High Yield Spread (bps) 425 265 380 315 410 290
Currency vs USD — 144.8 1,315 7.82 1.52 1.35
FX Volatility (3M ATM) — 8.2% 7.5% 6.8% 7.1% 5.9%
Equity Risk Premium (bp) 365 255 340 285 380 310
V

ECONOMY

GDP, Energy & Household Debt

GDP & Economic Structure

Metric US Japan S. Korea Hong Kong Australia Singapore
GDP Nominal ($T) $28.0 $4.2 $1.8 $0.48 $1.43 $0.54
GDP per capita (nominal) $84,000 $34,000 $34,500 $64,000 $56,000 $95,000
GDP Growth (%) +2.5% (2025e) +1.2% +2.9% +2.5% +2.1% +2.3%
GDP by Sector Srv 82% Ind 17% Agr 1% Srv 77% Ind 21% Agr 2% Srv 60% Ind 38% Agr 2% Srv 92% Ind 7% Agr <1% Srv 73% Ind 22% Agr 5% Srv 86% Ind 12% Agr 2%

Energy & Commodities

Metric US Japan S. Korea Hong Kong Australia Singapore
Total Primary Energy (Mtoe) ~2,270 ~509 ~290 ~28 ~145 ~25
Coal % ~10% ~30% ~27% ~2% ~50% ~0%
Natural Gas % ~32% ~35% ~24% ~42% ~20% ~45%
Nuclear % ~8% ~5% ~27% ~0% ~0% ~0%
Renewables (total) % ~13% ~22% ~9% ~11% ~30% ~5%
Oil Import Dependence Net exporter ~95% ~70% ~100% Net exporter ~100%
Oil Consumption (mb/d) ~19.0 ~3.3 ~2.7 ~0.2 ~1.0 ~0.4

Household & Government Debt

Metric US Japan S. Korea Hong Kong Australia Singapore
Household Debt/GDP % ~77% ~58% ~105% ~72% ~120% ~68%
Govt Debt/GDP % ~120% ~263% ~48% ~2% ~43% ~131%
Corporate Debt/GDP % ~98% ~102% ~110% ~95% ~75% ~85%
Total Debt/GDP % ~295% ~423% ~263% ~169% ~238% ~284%
Household Savings Rate % ~3.2% ~10.8% ~15.3% ~8.2% ~4.1% ~9.5%
Credit Rating (S&P) AA+ A+ AA AA+ AAA AAA
VI

DEMOGRAPHICS

Population & City-Level Analysis

City-Level Demographics

Metric New York San Francisco Tokyo Seoul Hong Kong Sydney Singapore
City Population (M) 8.3 0.88 14.0 9.9 7.5 5.3 5.9
Metro Population (M) 20.1 7.7 37.4 25.5 7.5 5.3 6.0
Population Growth (%/yr) +0.3% +0.8% -0.5% -0.8% +0.2% +1.2% +2.1%
Median Age (years) 37.3 38.1 48.6 41.5 44.8 38.0 39.5
Cost of Living Index 100 187 95 82 140 110 128
Avg Commute Time (mins) 42 38 62 75 35 40 35
Foreign-born % 29% 37% 2.5% 3.8% 41% 33% 48%
University Graduates % 37% 57% 48% 45% 46% 42% 56%
VII

REAL ESTATE

Markets, Charts & Home Ownership
Real Estate History
Source: NAREIT, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT | 50-year RE market performance

Home Ownership & Rental Market

Metric New York San Francisco Tokyo Seoul Hong Kong Sydney Singapore
National Home Ownership % 65% 65% 62% 59% 89% 66% 92%
City Home Ownership % 32% 38% 45% 52% 89% 55% 92%
Renter % of Households 68% 62% 55% 48% 11% 45% 8%
Avg Rent-to-Income % ~28% ~32% ~18% ~25% ~35% ~28% ~22%
Price-to-Income Ratio 8.5x 12.2x 7.8x 9.5x 14.2x 10.1x 6.8x
Years to Save 20% Deposit ~12.5y ~18.2y ~9.3y ~11.8y ~16.5y ~13.6y ~8.2y
Public/Social Housing % ~3% <1% ~8% ~6% ~30% ~1% ~80%

RE Market Charts by Sector

Office Real Estate
Source: CoStar, CBRE | Office vacancy rates & pricing trends
Logistics Real Estate
Source: CBRE, JLL | Logistics & industrial net absorption
Data Center Real Estate
Source: JLL, Equinix | Data center lease rates (AI boom era)
Hotel/Hospitality
Source: STR, CoStar | Hotel RevPAR & occupancy rates
Residential Real Estate
Source: Zillow, CoreLogic | Single-family home prices & supply
Tourism & Travel
Source: STR, UNWTO | International tourism recovery post-COVID
VIII

RESEARCH & RISK

IB Outlook, GS Earnings & Risk Matrix

IB Research Outlook

Research House S&P 500 YE Target Implied Return EPS Estimate US GDP Forecast Fed Funds YE 2026 Equity Stance
Goldman Sachs 5,500 +8.2% $245 +2.3% 4.00-4.25% Overweight
JPMorgan Chase 5,650 +11.5% $250 +2.5% 3.75-4.00% Overweight
Morgan Stanley 5,200 +2.8% $235 +1.8% 4.50-4.75% Equal-weight
Bank of America 5,400 +6.5% $242 +2.2% 4.00-4.25% Overweight
Barclays 5,350 +5.3% $240 +2.0% 4.25-4.50% Equal-weight
Citi 5,150 +1.4% $233 +1.5% 4.75-5.00% Underweight

Goldman Sachs Equity & Fixed Income

Goldman Sachs Stock Price
Source: Bloomberg | GS stock price 1999-2026: Blankfein, Solomon eras

Investment Banking Comps

Metric Goldman Sachs (GS) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Morgan Stanley (MS) Bank of America (BAC) Citigroup (C) UBS Group (UBS) Blackstone (BX) KKR (KKR) Brookfield (BAM)
Stock Price $814 $276 $139 $46 $82 $33 $175 $118 $62
Market Cap ($B) $279B $764B $246B $346B $192B $106B $215B $105B $88B
P/E Ratio 14.2x 12.8x 11.5x 10.3x 9.1x 8.9x 16.8x 15.2x 13.4x
P/B Ratio 0.82x 0.95x 0.78x 0.68x 0.51x 0.72x 2.15x 1.88x 1.62x
Dividend Yield 2.25% 2.18% 2.62% 2.41% 3.12% 3.45% 1.05% 0.95% 1.82%
ROE (TTM) 11.8% 12.5% 10.2% 9.8% 7.5% 8.1% 18.2% 16.8% 14.5%
Tangible Book Value/Share $995 $290 $178 $68 $160 $46 $82 $78 $38

Macro Risk Matrix

Risk Factor Probability Impact on Equities Impact on RE Impact on Credit Key Indicator
Hormuz Closure Escalation 45% -15% to -25% Cap rates +150-200bps IG spreads +200-300bps Oil > $150/bbl
Stagflation (high inflation + slow growth) 35% -10% to -20% Negative (rising cap rates) HY spreads +250-400bps CPI >3.5%, GDP <1%
Fed Pivot Earlier Than Expected 25% +8% to +15% Positive Spreads tighten 100-150bps Cuts begin Q4 2026
China Hard Landing 20% -8% to -12% Asia RE weakness Credit stress, flight-to-quality China GDP <2%
Commercial Real Estate Contagion 30% -5% to -10% -20% to -35% Regional bank stress Cap rates >6%, defaults surge
Tech Valuation Reset 40% -12% to -25% Modest impact Spreads +75-125bps Mag-7 P/E falls to 25-30x
IX

APPENDIX

Strategy Analysis & Industry Deep-Dives

Strategy & Research Analysis

Ben Thompson / Stratechery

Tech strategy, aggregation theory, platform dynamics

Topic: Tech/Strategy
stratechery.com
Matt Levine / Bloomberg

Money Stuff: Finance commentary, markets, regulation

Topic: Finance
bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/money-stuff
Byrne Hobart / The Diff

Finance + tech strategy, trading dynamics, edge analysis

Topic: Finance/Strategy
thediff.co
Kyla Scanlon

Economic commentary, 'vibes-based' macro analysis

Topic: Economics
kylascanlon.com
Doomberg / Substack

Energy, commodities, supply chains deep-dive

Topic: Energy/Commodities
doomberg.substack.com
Lulu Yilun Chen / Bloomberg

China tech ecosystem, regulatory dynamics, startup trends

Topic: China Tech
bloomberg.com/author/lulu-yilun-chen
Adam Tooze / Chartbook

Geopolitics, macroeconomics, systemic risk analysis

Topic: Geopolitics
adamtooze.com
Noah Smith / Noahpinion

Economics, policy, development, international trade

Topic: Economics/Policy
noahpinion.substack.com